Natural history of node-negative breast cancer: a study of 826 patients with long-term follow-up

J Clin Oncol. 1995 May;13(5):1144-51. doi: 10.1200/JCO.1995.13.5.1144.

Abstract

Purpose: We were interested in examining the long-term outcome of patients with node-negative breast cancer to address the following questions: (1) Is node-negative breast cancer a disease that is curable by local modalities? (2) Are there predictors of disseminated disease in node-negative breast cancer? (3) Are there subgroups of tumors that have different times to recurrence?

Methods: From 1927 to 1984, 826 women with node-negative breast cancer were treated at the University of Chicago. Patients underwent either a radical or extended radical mastectomy (83%) or a modified radical mastectomy (13%).

Results: Follow-up evaluation ranged from 9 to 523 months (43.6 years); the mean follow-up period of survivors is 162 months (13.5 years). On multivariate analysis, the strongest predictor of outcome and time to relapse was pathologic tumor size. Patients with tumors less than 2 cm had a 20-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate of 79% and a median time to recurrence of 48 months as compared with patients with tumors greater than 2 cm, who had a survival rate of 64% (P < .001) and a median time to recurrence of 37 months (P = .01).

Conclusion: With extended follow-up evaluation, node-negative breast cancer is a curable disease. Size is the strongest predictor of dissemination and rate of relapse. These data suggest that given the natural history of node-negative breast cancer, analysis of clinical trials with short follow-up periods can be misleading, since it may identify those patients whose tumors have a greater virulence but not necessarily a greater likelihood to metastasize.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Breast Neoplasms / pathology
  • Breast Neoplasms / therapy*
  • Chemotherapy, Adjuvant
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Lymphatic Metastasis
  • Mastectomy, Radical
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care*
  • Radiotherapy, Adjuvant
  • Receptors, Estrogen / analysis
  • Regression Analysis
  • Survival Analysis

Substances

  • Receptors, Estrogen