Key Points

Question  What is the long-term incidence of metastasis in patients with cribriform-positive and cribriform-negative prostate cancer who undergo active monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy?

Findings  In this secondary analysis of the 15-year outcomes of the PROTECT trial, the cumulative incidence of metastasis was 25%, 26%, and 8% for men with cribriform-positive prostate cancer assigned to active monitoring, surgery, and radiotherapy with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), respectively. For men with cribriform-negative disease, metastasis occurred in 7%, 4%, and 3% in each group, respectively.

Meaning  These findings suggest that patients with cribriform-negative prostate cancer are at low risk of long-term metastasis regardless of baseline treatment, whereas patients with cribriform-positive prostate cancer are at high risk of metastasis that is potentially reduced in those receiving radiotherapy with neoadjuvant ADT.

Abstract

Importance  Cribriform prostate cancer is associated with poor outcomes; however, its optimal treatment strategy remains unclear in the absence of randomized data.

Objective  To retrospectively analyze the results of the PROTECT randomized clinical trial to establish the association between cribriform-positive and cribriform-negative prostate cancer and 15-year risk of metastasis in patients who underwent active monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Between 1999 and 2009, the PROTECT phase 3 randomized clinical trial enrolled 1643 men with clinically localized prostate cancer who were randomly assigned to receive active monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). In this secondary analysis of the PROTECT trial, a centralized histopathologic review was conducted on available diagnostic biopsy slides to classify patients as cribriform-positive if they had invasive cribriform carcinoma and/or intraductal carcinoma. Data were collected from January 25, 2024, to October 11, 2024, and were analyzed from October 14, 2024, to January 30, 2025.

Exposures  Age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score, and cribriform status.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The primary outcome was progression to metastatic disease (bony, visceral, or lymph node metastases on imaging or PSA >100 ng/mL). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for randomization variables, were incorporated to assess 15-year metastasis risk. Cumulative incidence curves were compared using the Gray test. Both intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed.

Results  Among 712 men (mean age, 62.0 [5.0] years) whose biopsies were retrospectively reviewed, 93 (13.1%) had cribriform-positive disease and 42 (5.9%) developed metastasis. In the intention-to-treat cohort, cribriform-positive disease significantly increased the risk of metastasis (hazard ratio , 3.61 [95% CI, 1.60-8.11]; P = .003). Radiotherapy with neoadjuvant ADT significantly reduced metastasis risk (HR, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.16-0.78]; P = .04) (15-year cumulative incidence in patients with cribriform-positive disease, 8%), while surgery delayed metastasis but did not significantly improve long-term outcomes compared with active monitoring (HR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.25-1.08]; P = .09) (15-year cumulative incidence in patients with cribriform-positive disease, 26% for surgery and 25% for active monitoring). Among patients with cribriform-negative disease, incidence of metastasis was low and did not differ by treatment. Similar per-protocol results were noted.

Conclusions and Relevance  The findings of this secondary analysis of the PROTECT randomized clinical trial suggest that cribriform morphology was a strong, independent predictor of 15-year metastasis among patients with prostate cancer and that radiotherapy with neoadjuvant ADT was associated with a reduced long-term risk of metastasis. Conversely, outcomes were favorable for most patients with cribriform-negative disease, supporting their eligibility for active surveillance.

Trial Registration  ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02044172