Importance  Lifestyle factors are important for cancer development. However, a recent study has been interpreted to suggest that random mutations during stem cell divisions are the major contributor to human cancer.

Objective  To estimate the proportion of cases and deaths of carcinoma (all cancers except skin, brain, lymphatic, hematologic, and nonfatal prostate malignancies) among whites in the United States that can be potentially prevented by lifestyle modification.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This prospective cohort study analyzes cancer and lifestyle data from the Nurses’ Health Study, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, and US national cancer statistics to evaluate associations between lifestyle and cancer incidence and mortality.

Exposures  A healthy lifestyle pattern was defined as never or past smoking (pack-years <5), no or moderate alcohol drinking (≤1 drink/d for women, ≤2 drinks/d for men), BMI of at least 18.5 but lower than 27.5, and weekly aerobic physical activity of at least 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes. Participants meeting all 4 of these criteria made up the low-risk group; all others, the high-risk group.

Main Outcomes and Measures  We calculated the population-attributable risk (PAR) by comparing incidence and mortality of total and major individual carcinomas between the low- and high-risk groups. We further assessed the PAR at the national scale by comparing the low-risk group with the US population.

Results  A total of 89 571 women and 46 339 men from 2 cohorts were included in the study: 16 531 women and 11 731 men had a healthy lifestyle pattern (low-risk group), and the remaining 73 040 women and 34 608 men made up the high-risk group. Within the 2 cohorts, the PARs for incidence and mortality of total carcinoma were 25% and 48% in women, and 33% and 44% in men, respectively. For individual cancers, the respective PARs in women and men were 82% and 78% for lung, 29% and 20% for colon and rectum, 30% and 29% for pancreas, and 36% and 44% for bladder. Similar estimates were obtained for mortality. The PARs were 4% and 12% for breast cancer incidence and mortality, and 21% for fatal prostate cancer. Substantially higher PARs were obtained when the low-risk group was compared with the US population. For example, the PARs in women and men were 41% and 63% for incidence of total carcinoma, and 60% and 59% for colorectal cancer, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance  A substantial cancer burden may be prevented through lifestyle modification. Primary prevention should remain a priority for cancer control.

References:

1
Siegel  RL, Miller  KD, Jemal  A.  Cancer statistics, 2016. CA Cancer J Clin. 2016;66(1):7-30.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
2
Ma  J, Ward  EM, Siegel  RL, Jemal  A.  Temporal trends in mortality in the United States, 1969-2013. JAMA. 2015;314(16):1731-1739.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
3
World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research. Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and the Prevention of Cancer: a Global Perspective. Washington, DC: American Institute for Cancer Research; 2007.
4
Tomasetti  C, Vogelstein  B.  Cancer etiology: variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions. Science. 2015;347(6217):78-81.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
5
Wild  C, Brennan  P, Plummer  M, Bray  F, Straif  K, Zavadil  J.  Cancer risk: role of chance overstated. Science. 2015;347(6223):728.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
6
Potter  JD, Prentice  RL.  Cancer risk: tumors excluded. Science. 2015;347(6223):727.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
7
Gotay  C, Dummer  T, Spinelli  J.  Cancer risk: prevention is crucial. Science. 2015;347(6223):728.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
8
Song  M, Giovannucci  EL.  Cancer risk: many factors contribute. Science. 2015;347(6223):728-729.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
9
O’Callaghan  M.  Cancer risk: accuracy of literature. Science. 2015;347(6223):729.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
10
Rozhok  AI, Wahl  GM, DeGregori  J.  A critical examination of the “bad luck” explanation of cancer risk. Cancer Prev Res (Phila). 2015;8(9):762-764.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
11
Giovannucci  EL.  Are most cancers caused by specific risk factors acting on tissues with high underlying stem cell divisions? J Natl Cancer Inst. 2015;108(3):djv343.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
12
Wu  S, Powers  S, Zhu  W, Hannun  YA.  Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development. Nature. 2016;529(7584):43-47.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
13
Ashford  NA, Bauman  P, Brown  HS,  et al.  Cancer risk: role of environment. Science. 2015;347(6223):727.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
14
Colditz  GA, Manson  JE, Hankinson  SE.  The Nurses’ Health Study: 20-year contribution to the understanding of health among women. J Womens Health. 1997;6(1):49-62.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
15
Rimm  EB, Giovannucci  EL, Willett  WC,  et al.  Prospective study of alcohol consumption and risk of coronary disease in men. Lancet. 1991;338(8765):464-468.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
16
Giovannucci  E, Colditz  G, Stampfer  MJ,  et al.  The assessment of alcohol consumption by a simple self-administered questionnaire. Am J Epidemiol. 1991;133(8):810-817.
PubMed
17
U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010. 7th ed. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office; 2010.
18
Physical Activity Guidelines Advisory Committee. Physical Activity Guidelines Advisory Committee Report, 2008. Washington, DC: US Dept of Health and Human Services; 2008.
19
Arem  H, Moore  SC, Patel  A,  et al.  Leisure time physical activity and mortality: a detailed pooled analysis of the dose-response relationship. JAMA Intern Med. 2015;175(6):959-967.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
20
Chasan-Taber  S, Rimm  EB, Stampfer  MJ,  et al.  Reproducibility and validity of a self-administered physical activity questionnaire for male health professionals. Epidemiology. 1996;7(1):81-86.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
21
Mukamal  KJ, Chiuve  SE, Rimm  EB.  Alcohol consumption and risk for coronary heart disease in men with healthy lifestyles. Arch Intern Med. 2006;166(19):2145-2150.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
22
McCullough  ML, Feskanich  D, Stampfer  MJ,  et al.  Diet quality and major chronic disease risk in men and women: moving toward improved dietary guidance. Am J Clin Nutr. 2002;76(6):1261-1271.
PubMed
23
Etzioni  R, Penson  DF, Legler  JM,  et al.  Overdiagnosis due to prostate-specific antigen screening: lessons from U.S. prostate cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2002;94(13):981-990.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
24
Stampfer  MJ, Willett  WC, Speizer  FE,  et al.  Test of the National Death Index. Am J Epidemiol. 1984;119(5):837-839.
PubMed
25
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. SEER*Stat Database: Incidence—SEER 9 Regs Research Data, Nov 2014 Sub (1973-2012) <Katrina/Rita Population Adjustment>—Linked To County Attributes—Total U.S., 1969-2013 Counties, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch, released April 2015, based on the November 2014 submission. http://seer.cancer.gov. Accessed November 11, 2015.
26
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. SEER*Stat Database: Mortality—All COD, Aggregated Total U.S. (1969-2011) <Katrina/Rita Population Adjustment>, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch, released July 2014. Underlying mortality data provided by NCHS. http://seer.cancer.gov. Accessed November 11, 2015.
27
Surveillance Research Program NCI. SEER*Stat Software. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute; 2014.
28
Siegel  RL, Jacobs  EJ, Newton  CC,  et al.  Deaths due to cigarette smoking for 12 smoking-related cancers in the United States. JAMA Intern Med. 2015;175(9):1574-1576.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
29
IARC Working Group on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans.  Alcohol consumption and ethyl carbamate. IARC Monogr Eval Carcinog Risks Hum. 2010;96:3-1383.
PubMed
30
Schottenfeld  D, Beebe-Dimmer  JL, Buffler  PA, Omenn  GS.  Current perspective on the global and United States cancer burden attributable to lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Annu Rev Public Health. 2013;34:97-117.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
31
Bray  F, Jemal  A, Grey  N, Ferlay  J, Forman  D.  Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008-2030): a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2012;13(8):790-801.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
32
Parkin  DM, Boyd  L, Walker  LC.  16. The fraction of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in the UK in 2010. Br J Cancer. 2011;105(suppl 2):S77-S81.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
33
World Health Organization. Attributable Causes of Cancer in France in the Year 2000. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2007.
34
Inoue  M, Sawada  N, Matsuda  T,  et al.  Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005—systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan. Ann Oncol. 2012;23(5):1362-1369.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
35
Rockhill  B, Newman  B, Weinberg  C.  Use and misuse of population attributable fractions. Am J Public Health. 1998;88(1):15-19.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
36
Ezzati  M, Hoorn  SV, Rodgers  A, Lopez  AD, Mathers  CD, Murray  CJ; Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group.  Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors. Lancet. 2003;362(9380):271-280.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
37
Doll  R, Peto  R.  The causes of cancer: quantitative estimates of avoidable risks of cancer in the United States today. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1981;66(6):1191-1308.
PubMed
38
Blot  WJ, Tarone  RE.  Doll and Peto’s quantitative estimates of cancer risks: holding generally true for 35 years. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2015;107(4):djv044.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
39
Song  M, Giovannucci  EL.  RE: Doll and Peto’s quantitative estimates of cancer risks: holding generally true for 35 years. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2015;107(10):djv240.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
40
Miller  JW, King  JB, Joseph  DA, Richardson  LC; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  Breast cancer screening among adult women—Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, United States, 2010. MMWR Suppl. 2012;61(2):46-50.
PubMed
41
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  Vital signs: Colorectal cancer screening, incidence, and mortality—United States, 2002-2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2011;60(26):884-889.
PubMed
42
Myers  ER, Moorman  P, Gierisch  JM,  et al.  Benefits and harms of breast cancer screening: a systematic review. JAMA. 2015;314(15):1615-1634.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
43
Ewertz  M, Jensen  MB, Gunnarsdóttir  KA,  et al.  Effect of obesity on prognosis after early-stage breast cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2011;29(1):25-31.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
44
Litton  JK, Gonzalez-Angulo  AM, Warneke  CL,  et al.  Relationship between obesity and pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy among women with operable breast cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2008;26(25):4072-4077.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
45
Friedenreich  CM, Gregory  J, Kopciuk  KA, Mackey  JR, Courneya  KS.  Prospective cohort study of lifetime physical activity and breast cancer survival. Int J Cancer. 2009;124(8):1954-1962.
PubMed   |  Link to Article
46
Schmitz  KH, Neuhouser  ML, Agurs-Collins  T,  et al.  Impact of obesity on cancer survivorship and the potential relevance of race and ethnicity. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2013;105(18):1344-1354.
PubMed   |  Link to Article